Q3 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch:

2Q GDP was revised up to -31.7% qoq saar in the second release. 3Q GDP tracking rose by 2pp to 19% following recent strong capex and housing data. [August 28 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report:

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 15.3% for 2020:Q3. [August 28 estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 28.9 percent on August 28, up from 25.6 percent on August 26. [August 28 estimate]

It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  Therefore, a 25% annualized increase in Q3 GDP is about 5.7% QoQ, and would place real GDP down about 5.1% from Q4 2019.

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