Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

Advanced forecasts for the GDP estimates that are set to be released on Oct 28th.

Table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts underestimating the impact of the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.

Merrill Goldman GDPNow
7/30/21 7.0% 9.0% 6.1%
8/20/21 4.5% 5.5% 6.1%
9/10/21 4.5% 3.5% 3.7%
9/17/21 4.5% 4.5% 3.6%
9/24/21 4.5% 4.5% 3.7%
10/1/21 4.1% 4.25% 2.3%
10/8/21 2.0% 3.25% 1.3%
10/15/21 2.0% 3.25% 1.2%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 2% for 3Q GDP [Oct 15 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged after rounding at +3¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 15 estimate]

And, from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.2 percent on October 15, down from 1.3 percent on October 8. [Oct 15 estimate]

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