{"id":1527,"date":"2020-04-10T20:09:56","date_gmt":"2020-04-11T00:09:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/markkirkwood.com\/?p=1527"},"modified":"2020-04-11T13:34:08","modified_gmt":"2020-04-11T17:34:08","slug":"q1-gdp-forecasts-around-7-saar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=1527","title":{"rendered":"Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Note: <strong>The NY Fed Nowcast and Atlanta Fed GDPNow models are based on released data, and aren&#8217;t capturing the collapse in the economy in the 2nd half of March.<\/strong> All forecasts, including the Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs forecasts, are for the seasonally adjust annual rate (SAAR) of decline.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>From Merrill Lynch:<\/strong><br \/>\nWe continue to expect a <strong>7% decline in 1Q<\/strong> [SAAR Apr 10 estimate]<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>From Goldman Sachs:<\/strong><br \/>\nWe left our <strong>Q1 GDP forecast unchanged at -9.0% (QoQ AR)<\/strong>. However, we continue to expect the advance reading on April 29th to register a smaller decline of -6.5%, reflecting incomplete source data and non-response bias. [Apr 9 estimate]<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>From the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/nowcast.html\">NY Fed Nowcasting Report<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at <strong>1.5% for 2020:Q1 and -0.4% for 2020:Q2<\/strong>. [Apr 10 estimate]<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><b>From the Atlanta\u00a0Fed: <\/b><a style=\"font-weight: bold;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\">GDPNow<\/a><br \/>\nThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the <strong>first quarter of 2020 is 1.0 percent<\/strong> on April 9, down from 1.3 percent on April 2. \u2026 There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow\u2014the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. <strong>It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports<\/strong> beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. [Apr 9 estimate]<\/p>\n<p>Note: These estimate suggest GDP declined around 7% in Q1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR Note: The NY Fed Nowcast and Atlanta Fed GDPNow models are based on released data, and aren&#8217;t capturing the collapse in the economy in the 2nd half of March. All forecasts, including the Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs forecasts, are for the seasonally adjust annual rate (SAAR) of decline. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1527\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}