{"id":1981,"date":"2020-05-04T12:00:42","date_gmt":"2020-05-04T16:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/markkirkwood.com\/?p=1981"},"modified":"2020-05-04T11:39:00","modified_gmt":"2020-05-04T15:39:00","slug":"u-s-economic-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=1981","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Economic Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"

From Merrill Lynch re: GDP:<\/p>\n

We expect a 30% qoq saar decline in 2Q<\/b>. Following the 1Q GDP report, our forecast for annual GDP growth this year was adjusted to -6.0%. [SAAR May 1 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

U.S. Economic Forecasts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
<\/td>Q3 2019A<\/th>Q4 2019A<\/th>2019A<\/th>Q1 2020A<\/th>Q2 2020E<\/th>2020E<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Real U.S. GDP (% q\/q annualized)<\/td>2.1<\/td>2.1<\/td>2.3<\/td>-7.0<\/td>-30.0<\/td>-6.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Core CPI inflation (% y\/y)<\/td>2.3<\/td>2.3<\/td>2.2<\/td>2.2<\/td>1.8<\/td>1.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Unemployment rate (%)<\/td>3.6<\/td>3.5<\/td>3.7<\/td>3.8<\/td>15.6<\/td>10.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P 500 end period<\/td>2977<\/td>3231<\/td>3231<\/td>2585<\/td>-<\/td>2600
\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oil ($\/barrel, avg. of period WTI**)<\/td>56<\/td>57<\/td>57<\/td>46<\/td>20<\/td>32<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

Merrill Capital Market Outlook<\/a><\/p>\n

The forecasts in the table above are the base line view from BofA Global Research team. The Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) may make adjustments to this view over the course of the year and can express upside\/downside to these forecasts.<\/p>\n

A = Actual. E\/* = Estimate. S&P 500 represents the year-end target for 2020. **West Texas Intermediate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Merrill Lynch re: GDP: We expect a 30% qoq saar decline in 2Q. Following the 1Q GDP report, our forecast for annual GDP growth this year was adjusted to -6.0%. [SAAR May 1 estimate] Merrill Capital Market Outlook The forecasts in the table above are the base line view from BofA Global Research team. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1981\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}