{"id":2026,"date":"2020-05-16T12:00:01","date_gmt":"2020-05-16T16:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/markkirkwood.com\/?p=2026"},"modified":"2020-05-16T10:11:22","modified_gmt":"2020-05-16T14:11:22","slug":"q2-gdp-est-30-annual-rate-of-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=2026","title":{"rendered":"Q2 GDP EST: ~30% Annual Rate of Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Therefore, a 30% Q2 decline is around a 7% decline from Q1 (SA).<\/p>\n<p>From Merrill Lynch: <a href=\"https:\/\/olui2.fs.ml.com\/Publish\/Content\/application\/pdf\/GWMOL\/ME-cio-weekly-letter.pdf\">CIO<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>We are tracking -5.2% qoq saar for 1Q GDP and expect\u00a0<b>a -30% qoq saar plunge in 2Q<\/b>. [SAAR May 15 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>From the\u00a0NY Fed: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/nowcast.html\">Nowcasting Report<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at &#8211;<b>31.1% for 2020:Q2<\/b>. [EST: May 15, 2020]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>From the Atlanta Fed: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\">GDPNow<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the\u00a0<b>second quarter of 2020 is -42.8 percent on May 15, 2020<\/b>, down from -34.9 percent on May 8.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Therefore, a 30% Q2 decline is around a 7% decline from Q1 (SA). From Merrill Lynch: CIO We are tracking -5.2% qoq saar for 1Q GDP and expect\u00a0a -30% qoq saar plunge in 2Q. [SAAR May 15 estimate] From the\u00a0NY Fed: Nowcasting Report The New [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2026\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}