{"id":2070,"date":"2020-05-24T08:00:55","date_gmt":"2020-05-24T12:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/markkirkwood.com\/?p=2070"},"modified":"2020-05-24T10:11:19","modified_gmt":"2020-05-24T14:11:19","slug":"q2-gdp-forecasts-40-annual-rate-of-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=2070","title":{"rendered":"Q2 GDP Forecasts: ~40% Annual Rate of Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"

GDP<\/strong><\/span> is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 40% Q2 decline is ~9% decline from Q1 (SA).<\/p>\n

From Merrill Lynch:<\/h5>\n

We are tracking\u00a02Q GDP at -40% qoq saar<\/b>, down from -30% earlier. [May 22 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From Goldman Sachs:<\/h5>\n

The investment bank now expects the unemployment rate to peak at 25%\u2014on par with levels seen during the Great Depression\u2014rather than the 15% it was anticipating previously.<\/p>\n

Goldman also revised down its forecasts for GDP: it\u2019s now expecting GDP to plummet 39% in the current quarter, slightly more than the 34% drop it expected before.<\/strong><\/p>\n

For the year, Goldman is expecting GDP to drop 6.5%.<\/p>\n

Much of the economic damage comes down to changing consumer behavior\u2014spending at restaurants likely dropped by more than half in March and April, analysts say, and healthcare spending also fell as people cancelled elective procedures.<\/p>\n

Manufacturing output also fell 26% in April as auto production came to a near standstill. Even industries unconnected to the virus, like professional services, took a hit thanks to stringent social distancing measures.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From the\u00a0NY Fed: Nowcasting Report<\/a><\/h5>\n

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at\u00a0-30.5% for 2020:Q2<\/b>. [May 22 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow<\/a><\/h5>\n

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (SAAR) in the second quarter of 2020 is -41.9%<\/b>, up from -42.8 percent on May 15. [May 19 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 40% Q2 decline is ~9% decline from Q1 (SA). From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking\u00a02Q GDP at -40% qoq saar, down from -30% earlier. [May 22 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: The investment bank now expects the unemployment rate to peak at 25%\u2014on par […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2070","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2070"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2070\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}