{"id":2144,"date":"2020-06-20T10:00:42","date_gmt":"2020-06-20T14:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/markkirkwood.com\/?p=2144"},"modified":"2020-06-20T10:00:42","modified_gmt":"2020-06-20T14:00:42","slug":"q2-gdp-forecasts-33-annual-rate-of-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=2144","title":{"rendered":"Q2 GDP Forecasts: ~33% Annual Rate of Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"

GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 33% Q2 decline is ~8% decline from Q1 (SA).<\/p>\n

From Merrill Lynch:<\/p>\n

We revise up\u00a02Q GDP to -35% qoq saar<\/b> from -40% and 3Q to 20% from 7%, given the faster and more successful reopening. [June 18 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From Goldman Sachs:<\/p>\n

We have adjusted our real GDP growth forecasts and\u00a0now expect -33% in Q2<\/b>, +33% in Q3, and +8% in Q4 (vs. -36%, +29%, and +11% previously) in qoq annualized terms. [June 18 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From the\u00a0NY Fed Nowcasting Report<\/a><\/p>\n

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at\u00a0-19.0% for 2020:Q2<\/b>\u00a0and -1.9% for 2020:Q3. [June 19 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow<\/a><\/p>\n

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (SAAR) in the second quarter of 2020 is -45.5 percent<\/b>\u00a0on June 17, down from -45.4 percent on June 16. [June 17 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 33% Q2 decline is ~8% decline from Q1 (SA). From Merrill Lynch: We revise up\u00a02Q GDP to -35% qoq saar from -40% and 3Q to 20% from 7%, given the faster and more successful reopening. [June 18 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: We have adjusted […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2144"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2144\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2145,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2144\/revisions\/2145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}