{"id":2153,"date":"2020-08-29T08:50:20","date_gmt":"2020-08-29T12:50:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/markkirkwood.com\/?p=2153"},"modified":"2020-08-29T08:50:20","modified_gmt":"2020-08-29T12:50:20","slug":"q3-gdp-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=2153","title":{"rendered":"Q3 GDP Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From Merrill Lynch:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>2Q GDP was revised up to -31.7% qoq saar in the second release.\u00a0<b>3Q GDP tracking rose by 2pp to 19%<\/b> following recent strong capex and housing data. [August 28 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>From the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/nowcast.html\">NY Fed Nowcasting Report<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at\u00a0<b>15.3% for 2020:Q3<\/b>. [August 28 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And from the Atlanta Fed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\">GDPNow<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the\u00a0<b>third quarter of 2020 is 28.9 percent<\/b>\u00a0on August 28, up from 25.6 percent on August 26. [August 28 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).\u00a0 Therefore, a 25% annualized increase in Q3 GDP is about 5.7% QoQ, and would place real GDP down about 5.1% from Q4 2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Merrill Lynch: 2Q GDP was revised up to -31.7% qoq saar in the second release.\u00a03Q GDP tracking rose by 2pp to 19% following recent strong capex and housing data. [August 28 estimate] From the\u00a0NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at\u00a015.3% for 2020:Q3. [August 28 estimate] And from the Atlanta [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2153"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2154,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2153\/revisions\/2154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}