{"id":2283,"date":"2021-10-16T13:38:50","date_gmt":"2021-10-16T17:38:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/markkirkwood.com\/?p=2283"},"modified":"2022-11-19T12:31:41","modified_gmt":"2022-11-19T17:31:41","slug":"q3-gdp-forecasts-around-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=2283","title":{"rendered":"Q3 2021 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%"},"content":{"rendered":"

Advanced forecasts for the GDP estimates that are set to be released on Oct 28th.<\/p>\n

Table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts underestimating the impact of the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\nMerrill<\/th>\nGoldman<\/th>\nGDPNow<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
7\/30\/21<\/td>\n7.0%<\/td>\n9.0%<\/td>\n6.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8\/20\/21<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n5.5%<\/td>\n6.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9\/10\/21<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n3.5%<\/td>\n3.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9\/17\/21<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n3.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9\/24\/21<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n3.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1\/21<\/td>\n4.1%<\/td>\n4.25%<\/td>\n2.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/8\/21<\/td>\n2.0%<\/td>\n3.25%<\/td>\n1.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/15\/21<\/td>\n2.0%<\/td>\n3.25%<\/td>\n1.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/center>From BofA Merrill Lynch:<\/p>\n

We continue to track\u00a02% for 3Q GDP<\/b>\u00a0[Oct 15 estimate]
\nemphasis added<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From Goldman Sachs:<\/p>\n

We left our\u00a0Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged after rounding at +3\u00bc% (qoq ar)<\/b>. [Oct 15 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And, from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow<\/a><\/p>\n

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the\u00a0third quarter of 2021 is 1.2 percent<\/b>\u00a0on October 15, down from 1.3 percent on October 8. [Oct 15 estimate]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Advanced forecasts for the GDP estimates that are set to be released on Oct 28th. Table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts underestimating the impact of the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions. Merrill Goldman […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2283"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2305,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2283\/revisions\/2305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}