{"id":2399,"date":"2022-12-15T08:00:28","date_gmt":"2022-12-15T13:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=2399"},"modified":"2022-12-15T09:57:30","modified_gmt":"2022-12-15T14:57:30","slug":"fomc-statement-and-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/?p=2399","title":{"rendered":"FOMC Statement and Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dec 14 22 FOMC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20221214a.htm\">statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20220921.htm\">projections<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In September, the FOMC participants\u2019 midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was 4.625%. The FOMC participants\u2019 midpoint of the target range is now closer to 5.125%.<\/p>\n<p>Current Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase in 2022 Q4 over Q4, slightly above FOMC September projections.\u00a0 These tracking estimates would put Q4\/Q4 at 0.63% in 2022.\u00a0 The FOMC revised up 2022 GDP slightly, but revised down 2023 GDP.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\">unemployment<\/a> rate was at 3.7% in November. Thus far, the economic slowdown has barely pushed up the unemployment rate, and the FOMC revised down the 2022 projection, but revised 2023 up.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">As of October 2022, <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2022\">PCE<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"> inflation was up 6.0% from October 2021. This was below the cycle high of 7.0% YoY in June. The FOMC revised PCE inflation up for 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2022\">PCE core inflation<\/a> was up 5.0% in October year-over-year. This was below the cycle high of 5.4% y\/y in February.\u00a0 Core inflation picked up more than expected and the FOMC revised up their projections accordingly.<\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Sources: FOMC, BLS.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dec 14 22 FOMC statement. Here are the projections. In September, the FOMC participants\u2019 midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was 4.625%. The FOMC participants\u2019 midpoint of the target range is now closer to 5.125%. Current Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase in 2022 Q4 over Q4, slightly above [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2399"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2399\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2410,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2399\/revisions\/2410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.markkirkwood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}