Q1 GDP Estimates
From Bank of America:
4/3/2020: Expects to see that first-quarter GDP shrank by 7%, and forecasts that second-quarter GDP will decline by 30%, followed by a relatively gentler 1% decline in the third quarter.
Merrill’s Capital Market Outlook …
From the NY Fed: Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -0.4% for 2020 Q1 and -7.9% for 2020 Q2. [Apr 17 estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is -0.3 percent on April 16 … There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. [Apr 16 estimate]
Comments:
- It appears GDP declined around 7% SAAR in Q1. The decline in Q2 will be much larger.
- The NY Fed Nowcast and Atlanta Fed GDPNow models are based on released data, and aren’t capturing the collapse in the economy in the 2nd half of March.
- All forecasts, including the Merrill Lynch and other forecasts, are for the seasonally adjust annual rate (SAAR) of decline.