From Merrill Lynch re: GDP:
We expect a 30% qoq saar decline in 2Q. Following the 1Q GDP report, our forecast for annual GDP growth this year was adjusted to -6.0%. [SAAR May 1 estimate]
U.S. Economic Forecasts
| Q3 2019A | Q4 2019A | 2019A | Q1 2020A | Q2 2020E | 2020E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real U.S. GDP (% q/q annualized) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | -7.0 | -30.0 | -6.0 |
| Core CPI inflation (% y/y) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 15.6 | 10.6 |
| S&P 500 end period | 2977 | 3231 | 3231 | 2585 | - | 2600 |
| Oil ($/barrel, avg. of period WTI**) | 56 | 57 | 57 | 46 | 20 | 32 |
Merrill Capital Market Outlook
The forecasts in the table above are the base line view from BofA Global Research team. The Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) may make adjustments to this view over the course of the year and can express upside/downside to these forecasts.
A = Actual. E/* = Estimate. S&P 500 represents the year-end target for 2020. **West Texas Intermediate.