Tool | March 2013

Economic Outlooks

↔ GDP growth. Though slow in early ’13, around 2% for the year

↔ Interest rates. Little change through mid-’13, 10-year T-notes at year-end, 2.25%

↑ Business spending. About a 4%gain in ’13, half of ’12’s pace

↑ Housing sales. Existing homes up 7.5% in ’13, new ones more than 35%

↑ Inflation. Rising slightly this year, to about 2.3%

↓ Unemployment. Falling gradually over ’13, to around 7.5%

↔ Crude oil. Holding steady at $93-$98/bbl., at least through early spring—Trading at $95-$100 by Memorial Day

↑ Retail sales. 5% growth in ’13 after strong holiday sales

↑ Trade defect. Widening about 2% this year, with export growth steady

It’s not that this economy is so bad. After all, GDP is climbing, unemployment is falling, jobs are being created, and there is little inflation.

It’s just so not good. Growth is listless. For every job that’s open there are three job seekers. Nearly 8 million part-timers can’t find full-time work. Wages are stagnant. Export growth is lackluster, and average home prices…still 15% below the peak.

Complete economic outlook at kiplinger.com/outlooks.