FOMC Statement and Projections

Dec 14 22 FOMC statement.

Here are the projections.

In September, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was 4.625%. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now closer to 5.125%.

Current Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase in 2022 Q4 over Q4, slightly above FOMC September projections.  These tracking estimates would put Q4/Q4 at 0.63% in 2022.  The FOMC revised up 2022 GDP slightly, but revised down 2023 GDP.

The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November. Thus far, the economic slowdown has barely pushed up the unemployment rate, and the FOMC revised down the 2022 projection, but revised 2023 up.

As of October 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.0% from October 2021. This was below the cycle high of 7.0% YoY in June. The FOMC revised PCE inflation up for 2022.

PCE core inflation was up 5.0% in October year-over-year. This was below the cycle high of 5.4% y/y in February.  Core inflation picked up more than expected and the FOMC revised up their projections accordingly.

Sources: FOMC, BLS.

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