Q3 GDP Tracking at ~4%

Q3 GDP will be released next Thursday, Oct 26th. The consensus estimate is real GDP increased at a 4.1% annualized rate in Q3.

From Bank of America:

Overall, the data flow since our last weekly pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.8% to 4.3% q/q saar. [Oct 20th estimate]

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Oct 19th estimate]

From the Atlanta Federal Reserve: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. [Oct 18th estimate]

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